Deliverable 5.2

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“Boom-and-bust” model

Executive summary

The main aim of the PrimeFish project is to develop an innovative decision support framework, PrimeDSF, which contains economic and statistical models and a decision support system, PrimeDSS, that can be used by the industry and policymakers to better predict consequences based on existing knowledge and simulation/forecasting models. Starting from the analysis carried out in Task 2.3 “Boom and Bust Analysis” and D2.4, this deliverable describes how the FSDA toolbox will be used to predict price behaviour in the growth risk analyser (GRA) of PrimeDSS.

To simplify the calculations to be done in the GRA, this deliverable is based on different statistical models to the one used in WP2. The Kalman filter used there generated 4-5 graphs for each analysis that had to be read together. As only statisticians could probably fully grasp the information revealed in the graphs, it was deemed necessary to develop more easily accessible presentations. For this purpose, new models were compiled for use in WP5 and WP6 that summarize the price forecast in a single chart joined by a table that shows the price expected for each month and the extreme the price can take.

This document describes the methodology behind the price prediction tool developed in WP5, the GRA. The purpose of the GRA is to predict price over time (up to 12 months) for a species based on historical data (at least 36 months series) and on research of previous "boom and bust" cycles in the fisheries market. Finally, this deliverable also provides instructions, already circulated to the Syntesa partners, on how to implement this tool into the PrimeDSS in WP6.

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