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Work Package 5: Prediction models


General information


In WP5 simulation models are developed to analyse how changes in supply and demand affect production planning, economic performance, supply chain relationships, value added, potential product success, market trends and developments and thus competitiveness as measured by the updated FACI developed in WP1. Simulations of “boom and bust” cycles will be carried out and common traits highlighted that facilitate the development of prediction models. Building on work undertaken in WP4, a set of product success indicators will be established designed to indicate probability of successful launches on a targeted seafood market. The outcome of this WP will be simulation/forecasting models for analysing changes in competitiveness, prediction of instability of demand and supply including that of warning signs for “boom and bust” cycles and for indication of potential for product innovation success (SO5).


D5.1 -Developing Innovative Market Orientated Prediction Toolbox to Strengthen the Economic Sustainability and Competitiveness of European Seafood on Local and Global markets

The concept of competitiveness can be traced back to early writing on economics in the 17th and 18th centuries, but has become ever more urgent in the last decades with rapid improvements in transport and communication and a higher level of globalisation. Although competitiveness may be measured by single indicators, such as productivity of labour, a deeper understanding of the competitive standing of firms and countries can be gained by employing multi-dimensional measurements. Currently, the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), developed and compiled by the World Economic Forum, is probably the most comprehensive index of its kind. The choice of methods depends on a variety of factors, including the perceived need for complexity, data availability and how the results are to be used. (Click title to read more)


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