Revision as of 23:23, 29 January 2018

WP5: DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATION AND PREDICTION TOOLS

Introduction

In WP5 simulation models are developed to analyse how changes in supply and demand affect production planning, economic performance, supply chain relationships, value added, potential product success, market trends and developments and thus competitiveness as measured by the updated FACI developed in WP1. Simulations of “boom and bust” cycles will be carried out and common traits highlighted that facilitate the development of prediction models. Building on work undertaken in WP4, a set of product success indicators will be established designed to indicate probability of successful launches on a targeted seafood market. The outcome of this WP will be simulation/forecasting models for analysing changes in competitiveness, prediction of instability of demand and supply including that of warning signs for “boom and bust” cycles and for indication of potential for product innovation success (SO5).

Objectives

• To apply the Fisheries and Aquaculture Competitive Index (FACI)
• To develop simulation and prediction models
• To develop value-chain positioning models
• To analyse the likelihood of launching successfully innovative seafood products
• To evaluate seafood consumers’ willingness to pay for new products

Tasks

1. Development of Fisheries and Aquaculture Competitiveness Index (FACI).
2. Strategic positioning model.
3. Success analysis model.
4. Innovation and price analysis model.

Deliverables

• Fisheries and Aquaculture Competitiveness Index (FACI)
• “Boom-and-bust” model
• Strategic positioning model
• Demand analysis model